The expected worldvide numbers of liver, gallbladder and pancreas cancers

Abstract

The aim of the study: To describe the expected trend of liver, gallbladder and pancreas cancers in the world regions.

Material and methods: The estimated incidence, mortality and prevalence of liver, gallbladder and pancreas cancers, based in the Globocan 2008 (IARC), were comparised in males and females of the whole world, more and less developed regions, European Union and the Czech Republic between 2008 and 2030.

Results: Of total worldwide 749,744 new liver cancers in 2008, based in Globocan 2008 (IARC) is estimated 123,196 (16.4%) cases in more developed and 626,548 (83.6%) in less developed regions, 48,219 in the EU and 843 in the Czech Republic; of total 145,382,660 new gallbladder cancers 60,246 (41,5%) cases in more developed and 84,957 (58,5%) in less developed regions, 23,091 in the EU and 941 in the Czech Republic; of total 278,684 new pancreas cancers 166,156 (59.6%) cases in more developed and 112, 528 (40.4%) in less developed regions, 69,661 in the EU and 1950 in the Czech Republic. In 2030 their expected numbers can reach 1,251 thousand cancers of liver, 258 thousand cancers of gallbladder and 499 thousand cancers of pancreas in the world. Of total worldwide 695,726 deaths for liver cancers in 2008, there were 115,286 (16.6%) cases in more developed and 580,440 (83.4%) in less developed regions, 46,727 in the EU and 793 in the Czech Republic; of total 109,587 deaths for gallbladder cancers were 44,066 (40.2%) cases in more developed and 65,521 (59.8%) in less developed regions, 17,318 in the EU and 768 in the Czech Republic; of total 266,669 deaths for pancreas cancers were 162,424 (61%) cases in more developed and 104,245 (40%) in less developed regions, 71,116 in the EU and 1763 in the Czech Republic. The expected numbers can reach in 2030 nearly 1,176 thousand deaths for cancers of liver, 197 thousand of gallbladder and 482 thousand of pancreas in the world. The cases of liver cancer aged 65 years and overreached in both gender 68% of all age in more developed and 38% in less developed regions, of gallbladder cancer 79% in more developed and 50% in less developed regions, of pancreas cancer 70% in more developed and 54% in less developed regions. The world distribution of one-year cancer prevalence was 75.2% of liver, 58.7% of gallbladder and 37.6% of pancreas in Asia, 10.8% of liver, 18.3% of gallbladder and 33.8% of pancreas in Europe, 4% of liver, 8.5% of gallbladder and 17% of pancreas in Northern America, 6% of liver, 2.3% of gallbladder and 3.1% of pancreas in Africa in 2008. Alarming trends of incidence and mortality for these and other gastrointestinal cancers, should supported the management and personal responsibility with the preventive projects, also in less developed regions, which would be failed to accomplish the expected worldvide statistics.

Conclusions: The total world burden of liver, gallbladder and pancreas cancers represented about 1.174 million new diseases in 2008, which can exceed two million cases in 2030 with higher risk for population, particularly in less developed countries.